Category → Governor's Race
The governor’s race: The Alabama line and an online poll
Doc’s Political Parlor has brought back the Alabama Line for statewide elections. Here’s how they are handicapping the gubernatorial race:
(R) Bradley Byrne (2:1)
Favorite of the state’s GOP establishment is still the one to beat.
(D) Artur Davis (5:2)
Has strong believers and nay-sayers. Running aggressive race thus far.
(R) Tim James (6:1)
Rapidly becoming Byrne’s most serious challenger.
(D) Ron Sparks (9:1)
Strong candidate on paper but rumors of money woes persist.
(R) Kay Ivey (19:1)
Statewide official, only woman, but is PACT mess too much to overcome?
(R) Roy Moore (30:1)
Is his committed base large enough to move him into a primary runoff?
(R) Robert Bentley (>99:1)
Dark horse has impressed but has much ground to make up.
(R) Bill Johnson (>99:1)
Is this flame thrower running to win or just settle scores?
(R) James Potts (>99:1)
In America, they say anyone can grow up to be President, not Governor.
Christian Conservatives of Alabama has an online gubernatorial straw poll here. At this time, the three most fiscally conservative candidates with a reasonable level of name recognition are leading: Tim James, Bill Johnson and Roy Moore. Click here to cast your online gubernatorial preference and to learn more about the candidates.
How to gain the support of the Tea Party and libertarian crowd
On November 10th, the Rainy Day Patriots and Campaign for Liberty hosted a gubernatorial debate in Springville, Alabama. All of the announced candidates were invited, four committed to the event, and three actually showed. Birmingham talk radio host Matt Murphy was obviously irritated at Bradley Byrne’s last minute cancellation for the event. Robert Bentley, Tim James and Bill Johnson all presented themselves as fiscal conservatives. However, one of these candidates decisively won the straw poll following the debate. Here is how the votes broke down:
Johnson 6%
Byrne 4%
Bentley 12%
James 72%
In my opinion, the key reason James dominated the straw poll results is because he mentioned the Federal Reserve and Keynesian economics in his opening statement, which I clipped for your viewing pleasure. The entire debate is available on video here.
Little Jim out of governor’s race? Roger Bedford competing for the democratic stage?
Alabama’s primary feeding hole for political junkies reports the following:
Last night at a Montgomery function, Roger Bedford (D – Rogersville) was telling people that he was going to run for governor, including a lobbyist that spoke to me today. “He said he had had a conversation with some people, and they convinced him he could win the Governor’s race. He said that Folsom was one of those people.”
“Roger and I are friends, and I said, ‘You know, Ron Sparks is going to run.’ We’re all friends, and I said, ‘I wish you weren’t going to do that.’ He said, ‘Ron is my friend too, and I don’t think he could win. I’ve been convinced I can win, and I’m going to run.’”
“He told others [last night] he was going to run. But another lobbyist told me that Roger said this morning that he was ‘almost certain’ he was going to run, said it in a very positive way. But that tells me that he got some feedback from others, and he’s thinking about it.”
“I talked to Ron Sparks last night, the three of us spent some time together. Ron said [about Bedford running], ‘Well, I hate it, but I’m going to announce I’m running for Governor.’”
Is Folsom encouraging or orchestrating Bedford’s potential candidacy? A source close to Folsom said, “Jim has made it clear that he is not getting involved in the governor’s race. He is not orchestrating anything but anyone would certainly understand him having encouraging words for his longtime friend Roger Bedford.”
If Bedford runs, it will keep Artur Davis from assuming the media-appointed driver’s seat for the Democrats. Anyone wanna offer a handicap on the 2010 Democratic race this far out?
Conservative messaging for Alabama’s 2010 governor’s race
While at an Alabama Eagle Forum banquet on Friday night, I was fortunate enough to grab a few minutes alone with 2010 Alabama gubernatorial candidate Tim James. While James doesn’t have a long and padded political resume, he’s the son of former Governor Fob James and is well known in conservative circles in the state. He’s been significantly increasing his public appearances and media exposure, of late.
When I had the opportunity, I asked James if I could ask him a quick question. “Sure,” he replied. The question I lobbed at him was whether or not he would absolutely commit to not increasing taxes if elected governor.
“No problem,” he responded. “Got a tougher one?”
I pitched the second question a bit harder, but his response came as quickly as the first one. I asked if he’d commit to not increasing state spending. “That’s easy,” he said. “You got a tough one for me, now?”
“Okay,” I responded, and threw him a bit of a curveball. “Would you mind signing a pledge to this effect?”
“I’d love to…,” he stated. Later on, we set up a telephone call to deal with speaking arrangements for an upcoming event and the pledge issue.
While it’s still early and the field of probable candidates for Alabama’s 2010 gubernatorial race is already lengthy, I expect James to be the only viable fiscal conservative with a reasonable chance of winning both the primary and general election.
On the Republican side, I expect (at this time, it’s still very early and there are a lot of possible candidates) to see James, State Treasurer Kay Ivey and former Judge Roy Moore as the leading candidates in the GOP primary. Ivey will likely get the backing of many of the “machine” players, but James will probably get some of their support, too. Moore has a small but very active base of volunteers, but they won’t nearly be enough to win a primary — and he’s far too polarizing on social issues to come close to winning a general election, even in Alabama. What Moore has the power to do to keep James from beating Ivey in the first round of a primary election, though.
On the Democratic side of the aisle, I expect (at this moment, at least) the key competition to be between Congressman Artur Davis and Lt. Governor “Little Jim” Folsom. Like James, Folsom is also the son of an Alabama governor. He’s a bit underwhelming but his name carries a lot of clout around these parts.
Last Election Day, I participated in a televised panel/debate with Davis, another congressman and a reporter. Aside from the fact that Davis was Obama’s state campaign chair, his speaking style and general impression can be Obama-like, as well. If he’s polling well enough, he’ll be able to attract campaign donations from national sources. How strongly race will play into 2010 Alabama Democratic politics is still up in the air, though.
Primarily because of draconian ballot access laws in Alabama, there probably won’t be a serious independent or third party challenge.
Alabama gubernatorial politics are colorful and very tough to predict this far in advance. While Alabama was one of six states which voted for Goldwater in 1964, they reelected (by a two-to-one margin) the same Republican who proposed a major tax plan they defeated by the same margin a few years prior. With the first African-American serving as president, the possibility of his state campaign chair (who has been cut from a similar bolt of cloth) becoming a serious contender isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Spending time in prison or having a son (or wife) emerge as a political leader isn’t unheard of, either. Also, Jefferson County (Birmingham area) is not only Davis’ congressional turf, but it is also the largest municipality facing financial insolvency in the country. Like the federal government, it has spent too much, spent much of it unwisely and now the bills have come due. Whatever the outcome the race, these factors should make the upcoming political contest in Alabama very interesting.
However, should the final contest end up being between Folsom and Ivey, I’m not sure who’ll win — but I’d throw my money down on very low voter turnout. It would probably be a boring contest with the same-old politics. If it’s James against either Folsom or Davis, the race will not only be interesting but also be a test of conservative messaging in the age of Obama.
If conservatives are truly serious about retiring the same old post-Republican Revolution vanilla politics and really want an energetic, enthusiastic, fresh, new conservative voice which can also beat the Democrats, it might be worth your while to keep your eye on Tim James.
Here’s the link to the original story: http://thenextright.com/stephen-gordon/conservative-messaging-for-alabamas-2010-governors-race
